The value of Seafood Export In 2012 Will Reach USD 6.2 Billion

Difficulties from the second quarter such as lack of capital for export production and processing, low demand in the main EU market, the ethoxyquin barrier in the Japanese market and continuously increasing input costs have markedly impacted on operations of seafood production and export activities in the third quarter of 2012. Shrimp and pangasius exports both decreased for 3 consecutive months, making the total seafood export turnover of the third quarter of 2012 increased only slightly compared to the second quarter of 2012 (+ 3.4%) but decreased by 5.3% compared to that of the second quarter of 2012 of the same period last year, reaching USD 1.62 billion.

Although the export of seafood products still maintained positive growth, in the third quarter there was a sign of slowing down due to the drop of octopus squid export for 3 consecutive months due to lack of raw materials for processing tuna and marine fish exports still increased strongly at + 92% and 24% respectively over the same period, but octopus squid decreased by nearly 17%, dragging the rate up in the third quarter to 19% after rising by nearly 50. % in the second quarter.

Accounting for 64.8% of Vietnam's total seafood exports in the first 9 months of the year, the decline in export value of two items of shrimp and pangasius in the third quarter (shrimp decreased by 15.2%, pangasius decreased by 10%) and 9 Months decreased by 3.9% and 1.8% respectively, making total seafood export in the first 9 months only increase 4.3% over the same period last year, reaching over 4.5 billion USD. for production, the market's low purchasing demand, increasing input costs along with inadequacies in regulations and procedures related to seafood import and export (which continue to exist in the fourth quarter), is forecast. Total seafood export in the fourth quarter of 2012 will reach over USD 1.67 billion, an increase of about 3% compared to the third quarter, but a decrease of 5.7% compared to the same period last year, of which shrimp is about USD 650 million, Pangasius reached USD 470 million, seafood reached over USD 550 million.

Thus, seafood export in 2012 will be forecast-ed to reach over USD 6.18 billion, up nearly 1% compared to 2011, of which shrimp will reach over USD 2.2 billion, down by 8.3% compared to last year. Pangasius reached nearly USD 1.8 billion, equivalent to 2011, seafood reached nearly USD 2.2 billion, increased about 19% compared to last year.

Farmers and enterprises will continue to face difficulties due to lack of capital

Although the interest rate has been lowered to 11% and some banks have agreed to reschedule debts for shrimp and pangasius farmers, the difficulties lasting since last year have caused the fisheries sector to be considered a risky industry. Banks are still cautious when making loans. Debt rescheduling is not enough to save many farmers as they lose holes due to the rapid increase in production costs, while the selling price of raw materials is not stable, depending on the volatility of foreign markets. Loans, debt rescheduling or additional loans are only easy for enterprises with stable financial status, many small and medium enterprises and farmers have not yet access to low-interest capital of banks. The reason is that there are very few borrowers who can satisfy the criteria that banks require: such as having no bad debts, proving effective business plans, having collateral. ..

The raw material source for export processing continues to be in shortage

While the demand in the consumer market has not improved immediately, the volume of harvested pangasius and shrimp in the fourth quarter of 2012 together with the un-delivered inventory of the third quarter will be enough for processing and export activities in the last quarter of the year. It is forecasted that the source of shrimp will be about 20% lower than the same period last year, but the demand of the European market and the difficulty of the Japanese market will keep the supply and demand of this commodity balanced.

Fishing activities in the third and fourth quarters were affected by stormy weather, declining output, and it is estimated that seafood raw materials will continue a shortage of about 30% for export processing demand, especially squid, octopus. Tuna production will also decrease compared to the first half of the year.

Seafood imports increased by 30%

To compensate for the shortage of raw materials, especially seafood raw materials, enterprises will continue to promote seafood imports from other countries for export production and export processing, creating jobs for workers, and increasing foreign currency revenue for the fisheries sector. Importation of seafood products will be boosted in the fourth quarter, expected to increase by about 30%, as demand from foreign customers for this item will increase sharply in the last few occasions of the year. It is expected that seafood imports in the fourth quarter will reach an average of USD 65-70 million/month.

Major import market demand has not increased

EU market: The economic situation is forecast to continue to be bleak until the end of 2012, so the demand of this market will continue to decrease in the fourth quarter. Exports to this market will still have negative growth, forecast to decrease by 12-15% over the same period last year and only equal to or slightly decrease compared to the third quarter, reaching about USD 280-290 million. The products of shrimp and pangasius to the EU will remain difficult, tuna and marine fish have more prospects because of stable supply and better demand.

The US market: Growth was good in the first months of the year, but in the third quarter, it tends to go down. This trend will continue in the fourth quarter, expected to reach about USD 330 million, equivalent to the third quarter, but decreased slightly compared to the same period last year.

Japanese market: The ethoxyquin issue will continue to dominate shrimp exports to this market, so shrimp exportation will be strongly affected. It is forecasted that seafood export to Japan in the fourth quarter will decrease by 1.5-2% compared to the same period last year and equivalent to the third quarter of this year, reaching about USD 280 million USD. The market of China, Korea, ASEAN may be more optimistic in the fourth quarter, but the growth will not be high, forecast to increase by 10-20% over the same period in 2011.

According to Vasep